Ladies and Gentlemen,
My usual pattern is to contact you concerning En Primeur three times only: my overall and initial view; followed by my individual Châteaux tasting notes of my preferred Châteaux; and then a couple of months on just to mop up with a confirmation of what either you or I think is worth buying. It has worked pretty well thus far. I am loathed to indulge the daily routine and ritual that most Merchants stick to by
e-mailing you with each and every Petits Châteaux. Apologies about this unscheduled addition but I do feel I ought to update you midstream.
Robert Parker had advised that the Bordelaise should exercise caution; the precise and concise Andrew Jefford did too; and yesterday another questioning article in the Daily Telegraph. (Link below if you wish to read on.) Now some will say this is just my opinion that many 2010’s are being pitched too high to start with. I will counter and say that I can offer, as much as one can do, “proof” that I am right! Where does one start? Well, just yesterday the 3rd Growth Margaux, Château Giscours, popped its head over the parapet giving a U.K. release price of circa £ 525.00 a case. A healthy Parker score, is that so bad? Well given that the (in my view equally good) 2009 Giscours can still be bought in London from £ 385.00 and upwards why on earth should or would a private punter buy Giscours 2010 the wrong side of £ 500.00? I strenuously think you shouldn’t. That to me is what I call pretty concrete proof.
Whilst most are taking the proverbial I am glad to say that there are two camps that aren’t. Those to be applauded like Château Sociando-Mallet who have reduced their opening price since last year by 15-20%. We not only bought Sociando-Mallet (because we really liked it) but are today trying to top-up further on stock given the greed that has unfolded in the last 24 hours. Secondly there are still plenty of decent, though not stellar, properties that have been and still are offering their wines at very fair and sensible prices. Many of these circa £ 200 a case are unquestionably worth buying (Bellegrave from Pomerol; Chasse-Spleen; Clos René; La Louvière; Les Ormes de Pez; Poujeaux to name the most obvious to start).
A different example – Château Pontet-Canet. The 2009 opened at circa £ 875.00 and on the back of both Parker’s whopping 97-100 points and the fact that 90% of the U.K. Trade really rated and backed this wine. In a matter of days this wine rocketed to a Second Tranche price of £ 1,100.00 to £ 1,200.00. The heat, the rise, the profit happened brutally quickly but now the dust has settled and with one of the most sought-after Estates from 2009, this wine can still, easily, be bought in London at the same £ 1,100.00 to £ 1,200.00 range. So this week, by Pontet-Canet lamping-up their opening price by 39% that ensuing heat, rise, profit has simply evapourated by being added before the starting line. That kind of takes the whole raison d’être of buying En Primeur and certainly the logic of buying Pontet-Canet 2010. Financially I do not see the point. Their was briefly fat to be gleaned from the 2009 but at this release price the fat has already been extracted from the 2010. This is one of the few wines selling fast right now but I cannot envisage this going to bona fide drinkers but to besuited traders treating this as a commodity only and one that they will likely never see, never touch, never taste. Congratulations Monsieur Tesseron. Furthermore, fabulous though this wine is, it is a vast 120 Hectare Estate and he makes virtually no second wine. Lamping up the price to this degree I simply do not agree with. Château Léoville-Poyferré was a short head behind Pontet-Canet in my view last year and with a similar near optimum Parker score soared to the same price level at circa £ 1,200.00. The 2010, also just released today, initially appears to be more sensible than Pontet-Canet at circa
£ 990.00 but the (unavoidably influential) Parker score is not in the same top echelon as last year but one notch below. So should the price be. Estates are marking their wines up because of Parker scores, in doing so, they should keep in check or reduce when the opposite happens. This combination again makes me feel this is not the must buy that I thought it clearly was in 2009.
There are a handful of Estates that have risen sharply in the last 2-3 vintages but I think they have either been historically underpriced for the quality produced (Gruaud-Larose; Lafon-Rochet etc) or are simply making better or far better wines than they used to (Gazin; St-Pierre from St-Julien etc). These I take out of the equation and am happy to duly adjust and say, much more expensive but overall a fair price, so no disaster in buying.
Then there is always the game of comparing better values between Estates. One of my long-term favourites is St-Estèphe’s Château Phélan-Ségur. Having sold a big swathe of their land of to neighbouring Château Montrose I feel the quality this year unfortunately dipped. First time in donkey’s years they have priced themselves above the flamboyant Château Haut-Marbuzet as they added a whopping 20% over their 2009. Though Parker gives them similar scores I definitely prefer the Haut-Marbuzet and it is now cheaper. The far more substantial and complex Château Lafon-Rochet is less than 10% more so, sadly, Phélan-Ségur really is a miss this year. At the top end many people are comparing things as good or great value against Lafite-Rothschild. That is a nonsense, everything is so don’t even begin.
Then the question marks. The best wines historically come from Pauillac so the lower priced 5th Growths are usually worth gunning for. The solid (but not inspired) Château Haut-Batailley is normally a fair target. At £ 320.00 for the 2010 there is obvious temptation there but yet again the, perhaps even better, 2009 can be bought for circa £ 270.00. That means 13-17% up (different Négoçiant pricings) so not a mistake but not a must-buy either. And Château Talbot up by 10%; and Château De Fieuzal up by 11-12% up, it goes on…
Another small detail is that these 10-20% price increases are really underplayed. Given that the Sterling – Euro rate-of-exchange is almost 5% worse off than this time last year this also goes against the bottom-line equation. Then the Chinese question. Yes they are going relatively mad for a select few names like Lafite-Rothschild and Carruades and only yesterday I had a Hong Konger in who confirmed that he had been served red Bordeaux with ice but no Estate will be honest enough to say how much, what percentage they are actually selling to the Orient. Is it like the Champenoise pre the Millenium hyping the Market? I have no doubt that China is a serious factor but just doubt that it is quite as big as any Château owner has intimated to me. I think one of the misconceptions that the Bordelaise work with is that everything in a Vintage like 2009 is sold and often sold-out within days or hours even. That is because the Négoçiants take their allocation and then the Merchants in turn take their allocation. Job done! Not exactly. If a London Merchants buys 500 cases of Château X and only sells half of them, and the remaining half are still being listed by them a year’s hence at the same price (in real terms a few percent decline) then this is an artificial picture. The Bordelaise are busy patting themselves on the back but if the Trade end up carrying and even subsidizing large stocks, it is not all as it seems. The Bordelaise see 2009 as a terrific success and raise their 2010’s by 10%, 20%... I can only say thank you to Sociando-Mallet (and a few others) for being pragmatic and considered. This is a very delicate eco-system but alas all too many are looking in one direction only and as Oscar Wilde once said, “we are all in the gutter but some of us are looking up at the stars”.
To conclude, should you buy Bordeaux 2010?- Unequivocally, yes!
Should you buy in the same manner as you did in 2005 and 2009? - Unequivocally no!
I will release next month a list of Châteaux that I am fully confident that the price is a fair representation to their given quality but just advise that
this list will be significantly shorter than my recommendations in 2005 & 2009. Sad but that is the way much of Bordeaux is headed.
Of the Estates thus far released, we still believe in:
Beaumont
Picque-Caillou
Angludet
Bellegrave
Clos René
La Louvière
Haut-Marbuzet
Lafon-Rochet
Les Ormes de Pez
Chasse-Spleen
Poujeaux
La Croix St Georges
La Confession
Sociando-Mallet (seeking more)
Gazin
Gruaud-Larose (sold-out for now)
What we add from here onwards, remains to be seen!
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